Mispriced: How Horse Racing Markets Work and How to Beat Them

Horse racing betting is the same problem everywhere: the market knows more than it lets on, and most punters are working with the wrong tools. Mispriced draws on examples from National Hunt and flat racing in Britain and Ireland and covers everything from the fundamentals of value betting through to AI-assisted analysis and machine learning models that have returned positive results across eight consecutive seasons. The framework it describes can be applied to any racing market in the world.Most punters who lose aren't stupid. They read the form. They watch the market. They have opinions that are often correct. What they're missing is the framework that turns correct opinions into profitable ones, and the honesty to recognise the difference between a good bet and a bad bet.Mispriced is not a system. Systems don't survive contact with the real market for extended periods of time, and anyone who's followed one long enough knows it. What this book offers instead is a process, one built on probability, patience, and the kind of honest thinking that most punters find uncomfortable at first.The difference matters. A system tells you what to back. A process teaches you how to find edges, temporary, specific, exploitable gaps between what the market thinks and what the evidence shows. Edges don't last forever either. But a process for finding them does.Part One covers the thinking: value, probability, why edges decay, how to size your bets, when to walk away, and the psychological reality of doing this seriously over time. It stands on its own. You don't need to read further to benefit from it.Part Two covers the method: spreadsheets, going bias, trainer and jockey statistics, and a ratings framework for combining signals into a single probability estimate. It closes with a practical guide on where to begin.Part Three goes further, AI tools as analytical partners and machine learning models that have returned positive results across eight consecutive seasons of racing in Britain and Ireland. It is optional, clearly signposted, and written for those who want to build something more robust.The numbers in this book are real. The profits and losses are all documented. So is the methodology behind them.If you're serious about betting markets and tired of being sold certainty that doesn't exist, this is the book for you. Read more